Roanoke Free Press

But Brian Moran Leads in Statewide Poll of Likely Primary Voters

As the Democratic primary comes to a close, the three candidates are neck-and-neck-and-neck.  However, among voters most likely to vote come June 8^th, Brian Moran holds a slight lead.  

Between May 26 – 27, 2009, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research interviewed 400 likely voters in Virginia’s June Democratic primary.  This survey carries a margin of error of +/- 4.9 points at a 95 percent confidence level. 

Here are a few highlights from the survey:   

• Candidates are in a three-way tie.  Looking at those most likely to vote—those voters who have a history of voting in Democratic primaries beyond the 2008 presidential primary—Moran enjoys a two-point lead. 

Table 1:  Trial Heat Results among base voters  

• McAuliffe draws the highest unfavorable ratings in the field.  Nearly one in four (24 percent) of these partisan Democrats describe their feelings toward McAuliffe in negative terms, 41 percent react favorably.  These negatives are 10-points higher than either Moran (44 percent positive, 12 percent negative) or Deeds (45 percent positive, 14 percent negative).  

Conclusion

This one will go down to the wire and every dollar, every door knock, and every volunteer phone call will count.  However, given the fact that the Moran campaign holds a marginal lead among those voters most likely to vote, and had only just started its television advertising at the time of this survey, while McAuliffe and Deeds had been up on television for months and weeks, respectively, Brian Moran is well positioned for the final week.